Thursday, February 29, 2024

Wrap Up for February 2024

Lack of home ownership access is worse than we thought.

Even though many don't feel safe, violent crime is starting to drop.

Gauti Eggertsson talks monetary policy and the post-pandemic inflation surge with David Beckworth. Scott Sumner responds.

The U.S. needs for its allies to be stronger, not weaker.

Will EV battery swapping become an option for the U.S.?

Hannah Ritchie on future global energy demand.

Today's population growth is due to people living longer. 

A looming global trade war will be fought with (more) tariffs.

Some reasons why innovation in building materials has been difficult.

There has been an "accidental flirtation" with NGDP targeting.

"The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory"

Thankfully, this innovation in blood testing is real.

Climate change as a factor in societal collapse.

I believe this kind of recycling has tremendous potential for our housing access problem.

Perhaps industrialization shouldn't be discounted just yet. Noah Smith also references a relevant and important paper, "Local Multipliers" by Enrico Moretti.

What makes a state monopoly of money printing so durable?

Some are more likely to be swayed by misinformation than others.

At the very least, lessons could be targeted specifically to what students already know.

Everyone has been too complacent about Social Security.

What if high-interest policy is a form of fiscal stimulus?

A look at how government budgetary obligations are presently changing. And, our current level of debt was nonetheless a predictable crisis.

Mark Koyama talks with David Beckworth about historical origins for economic growth.

When the real America wrongly believes it is full, will new "Americas" rise to take its place?

For Putin, Poland is even more important than Ukraine.

The Senate has changed.

Even though Germany is vulnerable, it is hardly alone.

"How Biden botched the border"

This is an opportune moment to bring forward tax depreciation schedules (again) for multifamily housing.

Some chart visuals for climate change.

When our government no longer has enough money for Medicare revenue requirements, yet hospitals no longer have enough money to stay open without governmental help, it's time to look for solutions beyond those that are strictly monetary.

How do wages affect inflation?

Why is the work week shrinking?

Not all aspects of vital services are captured by GDP. Also, "Care Provision and the Boundaries of Production"

What might happen if a U.S. government default causes the loss of safe asset status?

Some fiscal policy projections for the next three decades.

More cities are starting to consider broader zoning for housing options.

People learn more from those who they readily relate to.

Ties between the U.S. and Europe remain closer than some realize.

Middle class expectations have been dealt a financial blow in recent years.

Which world leaders have the highest approval ratings?

Brian Potter explains how he prepares his posts for publication.

Without immigration, the U.S. population would soon decline.

What trade jobs are most in demand?

Noah Smith was disappointed in the main premise of Power and Progress.

Navalny's death is Russia's dark turning point.

China's trade advantages continue to be a problem for the West.

Diners would like restaurants to stay the same, but that's no longer possible.

What is the difference between being nice and being kind?

Don't say we weren't warned.

The NIMBYism of high skill areas also provides rationale for promoting economic development in lower skill areas.

Carola Binder's new book, Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy , will be released on May 21, 2024.

What is the American left really about?

At the very least, consumers have their own ways of dealing with inflation.

Russ Roberts and Charles Duhigg on the art of conversation.

A closer look at how Democrats lost voters with relatively less education.

Alexei Navalny as both a warning and a beacon.

Perhaps Medicare and Medicaid plan to use these new access fees for their funding shortfalls! Here are their policy changes. Nevertheless, some continue to dream of knowledge access possibilities in anti-rival forms. For me the dream is still time arbitrage for local healthcare education and access, not to mention (widely shared) knowledge preservation.

Robin Brooks is now working with Brookings.

"Britain's interwar apartment boom"

Fascism has also had its share of military failures.

How might AI help rebuild the middle classes?

Services were a big contributor to the hot January CPI number. Plus, why the variance between rent and home ownership is so important,

Some relative changes in prosperity around the country.

Suggestions for overcoming K-12 student learning losses.

In 2022, 1 in 7 cars sold around the world were electric.

Bank balance sheets are no longer a prominent part of credit intermediation.

A senior home close to Vienna has a microbrewery where its residents can work.

Inflation projections by country for the coming year.

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Wrap Up for January 2024

Many don't realize how high property tax burdens have actually been in Texas.

People are still intrigued by the idea of a Gesellian economy.

When interest rates are the main Fed tool (rather than NGDP), the seemingly simple logic of a "soft landing" becomes more difficult. Wage inflation also has not come down enough for a soft landing to be realistic at this point. And, Scott Sumner highlights some of "the best" money macro economists.

What will be the main economic stories of 2024? However, after the next 10 months, all bets are off. 

Arpit Gupta discusses sectoral factors which continue to affect post-pandemic inflation. 

For healthcare, the U.S. leads in both price and quantity rankings.

Some government created fiscal commissions have been more successful than others. What would a new fiscal commission seek to achieve?

It's not clear which restrictions actually stand in the way of greater manufactured home construction.

A closer look at some disinflationary trends.

Recent developments in satellite imagery, make it possible to show the extent of human activity taking place at sea.

Despite disinflationary gains, prices haven't stopped rising in Europe.

Michael Easter discusses his book Scarcity Brain with Russ Roberts.

What might an inspiring 21st century department store look like?

Some 2023 highlights and looking ahead, from Macro Musings.

2023 certainly turned out different than some expected.

Are people starting to lose interest in an economic education?

Robert Solow made a profound contribution to economic growth.

There's been a shift away from the culture of progress in the West.

Brink Lindsey highlights the problem of fertility collapse.

High income levels tend to pay the lowest local and state level taxes.

Rising rents and evictions also impact lifespan and mortality rates.

How to think about inequality? It depends on one's research sources. 

In order for prophecy to actually be worthwhile, it needs to spell out the future in concrete and specific terms, so that adaptation is feasible. 

A visual for "Top global risks in 2024".  Brookings notes five risks. Global commerce is also fragile.

Asbestos actually had beneficial qualities. But the dangers were higher than anyone initially realized.

Is "consumption-led growth" really the best way to describe what an economy may need?

Peter Ireland has a new paper on money growth and inflation.

Republicans, rural residents, renters, women, and singles are the ones who don't feel particularly good about the economy. And as Neil Irwin notes, it's the higher price level that bothers people most. Americans think their leaders don't care.

In recent years, hospital debt obligations have increased for people with health insurance.

There's potential for innovation in insulin production.

"Did the West get rich from imperialism?"

It's already existing student debt obligations, not to mention child care costs, which make home ownership so difficult for young adults.

The U.K. has struggled more recently than many nations.

Perceptions of the U.S. government, have taken a turn for the worse.

Adam Ozimek highlights the challenges of an aging population.

Davos notes that the debt problem is global this time.

The relative price of goods also still remains above trend. 

How would a second Trump presidency compare to the first, in terms of healthcare?

Much about inequality in the U.S. really comes down to the hidden cost of healthcare insurance.

J.W. Mason explains "13 Ways of Looking at Money".

U.S. industrial policy still leaves a lot to be desired.

U.S. citizens remain too reliant on (unpaid) family members for long term care of the elderly.

"Between 1982 and 1987, half of US machine tool firms closed their doors."

Which school investments increase local property values? It depends.

The tightening mechanism worked better via corporate channels than some may have expected.

Despite the negative supply shocks, there have been positive ones as well.

"Quiet Quitting the War on Drugs"

Even Yimbys aren't always on board with new cities that are a fresh start, rather than adaptations for already existing ones. Noah Smith has a much more positive take. 

A different kind of politico-military strategy.

"The real problem is the debt time bomb." It still doesn't seem like anyone is serious about dealing with this. I believe that structural solutions beyond money are necessary to turn things around. But people have yet to consider such a route, let alone act on it.

How did the measurement of aggregate demand become so confusing?

I'd note that time banks could at least function as a simple component of time arbitrage. 

Political pressure has been a problem for inflation.

Some structural accounting for markups now occurring in services rather than goods.

The soft landing? Or perhaps no landing at all.

Kevin Erdmann is in favour of a 5 percent NGDP growth trend.

Jonathon Hazell on Phillips Curves, Wage Rigidity, and How to Measure R-Star" Plus, Scott Sumner responds.

Which states are the most racially diverse?

Aggregate demand or NGDP isn't important in the long run, but it's the most important variable in the short run. And anyone who takes it seriously has a useful context for gradualism as well.

"Real residential investment is half of what it commonly was in the past, relative to other real production."

Is disinflation over?

"the cost of mortgage origination has basically never been higher." FinTech hasn't really delivered the market improvements that seemed possible.

Public health is in need of a new approach.

There are positive global implications for local 3D printing with recycled materials, for construction. "The goal of this research is to create a system for constructing homes that alleviates strains on the supply chain and addresses labor shortages, while providing economical and sustainable housing."

A positive story in renewed community connections.

Some thoughtful explanations for recent world conflicts.

Whatever happened to the retail "apocalypse"?

It's been quite a struggle for aircraft manufacturers.

Saturday, December 30, 2023

Wrap Up for December 2023

Until the Fed adopts a level target, mistakes such as the Great Recession and the more recent excessive inflationary level gain, are likely. 

"Many boomers will face tough choices as they age." Indeed, one of the more difficult aspects of the almost 10 percent level rise just in the last 4 years.

There were interesting business books this year. Material World in particular had positive reviews.

Why the robust holiday shopping season that defied economic anxieties?

Thinking about the use of one's time when it's not strictly in productivity terms.

How real is the decoupling between the U.S. and China?

Does it make sense to think of societal collapse as bad luck? Over the years I've emphasized how government redistribution to support ongoing knowledge use in society, is particularly fragile. Here, much more than luck is needed!

Sometimes when it comes to politics, the issues aren't as important as they seem.

Young voters aren't happy about their 2024 voting options, yet they are concerned regarding economic issues.

At $33.2 trillion, the U.S. holds more than one-third of the world's government debt.

The first roadway in the U.S. which will charge EVs.

There are medium-term challenges now faced by the ongoing energy transition.

Public services in the UK are being described as a "doom loop".

When is a monetary "puzzle" not actually a puzzle? Also, for once a soft landing is possible.

Is AI really on a path that will improve our financial realities? Plus, what might be expected regarding productivity potential in the near future? 

Central bankers have the tendency to celebrate too soon, when it comes to addressing inflationary episodes.

Speaking of premature celebrations, Why did public health officials archive the "excess deaths" webpage?

Has China's decline been exaggerated?

Francis Coppola reflects on current economic circumstance in the UK.

Digital tech activity is finally spreading out in the U.S.

A closer look at real interest rates in recent decades.

Christmas as an experiential journey, rather than an explicit goal.

Food supply adaptation might be the biggest challenge due to climate change.

One advantage for monetary policy over fiscal, is that monetary stimulus doesn't increase public debt.

What might we expect of healthcare spending in the near future?

Homelessness in the U.S. is now at a record level. And despite other factors, the cost of today's housing is the main cause. However, moral expectations also get in the way of housing abundance.

It turns out Americans are most satisfied with the care provided by their nurses.

Rising flood risk results in abandoned neighborhoods. Even as people continue moving to flood prone areas, they're becoming more aware of the risks involved.

Until now, the Suez Canal had actually been experiencing a "renaissance".

It shouldn't be necessary, to just say "delete fiscal" from the macro policy equation. Especially since the governmental action of advanced economies does not define general equilibrium circumstance, regardless of policy decisions. Why isn't it obvious by now, how human activity in aggregate creates the macro outcomes that matter? When governments insist on fiscal dominance, it shows their reluctance to take seriously their own citizens. 

While price increases finally slowed, their hoped for reversal never materialized as so many had hoped. The CPI has increased 19% since February 2020.

The Fed walks a narrow tightrope. Nevertheless, Some theories for the Fed's "soft landing".

There is real value in synchronized time.

Simple explanations for the Solow model. Despite the value of his exogenous growth model, total factor productivity remains a mystery. Nevertheless, for me it helps to think of TFP as what physical capital accomplishes alongside human capital. Plus, for the wealth created in a single year, there are upstream wealth claims on human capital which impact the output potential of knowledge economies. What if some central bankers might be afraid to adhere to appropriate nominal limits when knowledge based output is purposely withheld?

Tyler Cowen discusses great economists with David Beckworth. Scott Sumner responds.

Matthew Klein's year in review.

Shifting patterns for domestic migration. Migration from blue states to red states also impacts political outcomes.

At the very least, the NATO alliance has renewed purpose.

Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Wrap Up for November 2023

Extreme weather continues to affect insurance rates.

American civil society: it's time for a reboot.

Why isn't the valuable knowledge from clinical trials more widely shared?

What is most important for quality product that is reasonably priced?

In a sense, Taiwan could be considered China's best province.

U.S. foreign aid has changed considerably.

Ireland has become an unexpected success story.

How important is cash as a mechanism for the hot potato effect?

Strategies for a more resilient U.S. economy.

There's a wide range of spoken languages in the U.S. besides English and Spanish.

How unified does the EU really need to be?

Should long real rates remain as they are now, it will take time to achieve debt stabilization. 

Claudia explains how there can be exceptions to her Sahm rule.

Singapore has some unique characteristics.

How useful is the gap between r and g for fiscal capacity?

Zero sum thinking explains some of the puzzling aspects of policy views.

"What kind of good is housing?"

The primary role for central banks is management for the supply and demand of liquidity. However, it can be dangerous when central banks are pressured to facilitate fiscal dominance.

I was surprised which companies had the best employee retention. Especially considering the years my Dad worked for Phillips.

The central banks which moved quicker, got better results.

"Economics in Early Modern Philosophy"

Middle class expectations have changed in complex ways.

Welding continues to adapt to the automation frontier.

What caused the Great Depression has never been satisfactorily explained.

Five books on economic nationalism.

Diplomas that don't require state approval. It almost feels as though our educational system is casting about in the wilderness. Eventually, we can only hope it might finally achieve a greater purpose that aligns with human aspiration and personal meaning.

Brink Lindsay takes a closer look at what productivity represents.

Brookings on the recent increase in the budget deficit.

Monetary and fiscal policy as equilibrium restoring forces.

Alan Blinder describes hard and soft landings (youtube)

Becoming a public historian has its challenges and responsibilities.

Kevin Erdmann doubts the possibility of production efficiencies in housing.

A look at data on life expectancy worldwide.

In the past few years, I've come to understand (along with millions of others) why disinflation alone isn't enough to remain positive about economic outcomes.

Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Wrap Up for October 2023

Some noteworthy books on economic history.

Regulations often result in prohibitive costs, in part because they tend to benefit the elites.

There is still a role for storytelling in economics.

Brian Albrecht highlights some of Claudia Golden's work which won her this year's economics Nobel. More on Claudia Golden from Timothy Taylor. Here's the press release from the Nobel Committee. Noah Smith also provides numerous references.

Is the poverty line an arbitrary measure that is actually holding us back?

"Why are we losing the bottom rung of the ladder in housing and cars alike?"

A visual of different global investment risks.

Intergenerational mobility continues to decline.

The pandemic didn't notably change our present slow growth trajectory.

Which has proven more effective for homelessness: "treatment first", or "housing first"?

Vitalik Buterin's recent example of intentional community. Previously I've written about domestic summits, as a potential sorting mechanism for start ups in common interest communities. In particular, such groups could more fully integrate personal time commitments as economic values in daily life.

Normally, monetary cycles tend to have a "longhorn" shape.

How did the population of Gaza end up in such dire circumstance, in the first place?

The growing popularity of citizens' assemblies.

"Alexandra Hudson on the Soul of Civility."

Tactical errors were made. But strategic errors were also made. There is still insufficient symmetry.

Debt service will likely reshape fiscal politics. And more on the current $2 trillion deficit.

An update for global recovery.

Roads have been quite beneficial, but they still have costs.

The WTO takes on arguments against globalization (Timothy Taylor).

Some illustrations for what has been an unusual recession and recovery.

A needed reminder that free markets are also conducive to housing density.

Will trade continue to grow between the U.S. and China?

Aging populations don't necessarily have to be an economic problem. Likewise, "Demography is not destiny".

This time around, the bond vigilantes seem to be more relevant.

Happiness is a subjective - yet important - economic factor.

There's a difference between the concept of "bureaucracy" and what a civil service actually consists of.

Confusion about real estate "bubbles" is one aspect of what we don't really know about macroeconomics.

Can workers still expect above average wage increases in 2024?

How might the use of knowledge change, if it is envisioned as a journey rather than an end?

Comparing output per hour for the European Union versus the U.S.

Houston public school administration was recently taken over by the state.  This seems problematic to me on several levels. For one, consider the degree of local taxation without representation that's involved. Texas has high property tax requirements, much of which is slated for public education.

"How do you respond to the intolerant when you believe tolerance is a virtue?"

A visualization for monetary outcomes in the U.S. and the EU.

Saturday, September 30, 2023

Wrap Up for September 2023

Public schools haven't addressed learning losses that resulted from the pandemic.

A visual for the current difference between cost to rent versus cost to buy a home.

Much of the debate about China's economic potential is misleading.

The college wage premium is not as pronounced as before.

Odd Lots with Barry Eichengreen on the "New Era of High Public Debt"

Will AI become an equalizer for human capital potential?

Vertical relationships between primary care physicians and health systems are resulting in higher costs.

A visual of China's slowing economy.

Much of the inflation that remains is due to healthcare.

Does China have economic incentives for war?

Scott Sumner highlights a recent paper from the San Francisco Fed.

Time management has changed as the monetary value of time has evolved.

Confidence in the current Federal Reserve chairman has reached a low ebb.

Inflation has come down. Yet the cost of living remains inflated. Who is right?

Many nations have a poor perception of capitalism as concept.

Should a period of high inflation also becomes associated with a higher wage level, it's a kind of inflation which cannot be defined as "transitory". Which also holds true for the recent inflationary period.

"economics is too silent on big issues"

Anupam Bapu Jena discusses his book Random Acts of Medicine with Russ Roberts.

The link between medical debt and homelessness.

Noah Smith is optimistic about the next phase of globalization.

Religious attendance used to be associated with interpersonal trust.

Who has incentive to take on significant extension of new transmission lines?

Tokyo has turned out to be one of the most affordable yet desirable places to live.

"Joe Gagnon on Inflation Progress and the Path Ahead".

The U.S. is fortunate indeed to hold a global currency, if it can keep it.

Measuring healthcare has become too difficult to manage the inflation it causes.

Economic growth in the U.S. has remained fairly close to trend for the last 150 years.

Large central bank balances are increasingly being questioned.

Continuing inflation could also have political effects.

"Commutes are down, but people are finding other reasons to leave the house."

What if recent YIMBY deregulation hasn't really been all that effective in California?

Once borrowing becomes more expensive, the likelihood of austerity increases.

In what way does supply and demand explain inflation?

The parallel crisis of nursing homes and child care.

Victor Fuchs also believed healthcare costs were largely responsible, for the ever growing imbalance between our nation's GDP and fiscal trajectory .

How does today's Social Security funding challenge compare to the one in 1983? As the deadline for reduced SS approaches, I've wondered whether recent retirees are moving forward in time important spending decisions - the kind which otherwise tend to be spread out over decades. The (likely) future shortfall has certainly affected my recent spending decisions. As Baby Boomers continue retiring, perhaps a growing awareness of this problem is reflected in today's stronger than expected consumer activity.

Robert McCauley discusses bond market crisis with David Beckworth.

Are hospitals with substantial market power more productive?

Price gouging is a good example why economics is so difficult to understand.

A visual of subsea cables.

From Claudia Sahm: GDP revisions are a reminder not to rely too much on any one data point.

Claudia Sahm also recently noted that Covid could have caused poor consumer sentiment. Scott Sumner suggests political polarization is responsible. While both have valid arguments, I'm partial to higher costs in housing and transportation which have permanently reduced lifestyle options for millions. This, in spite of successful global efforts to bring down aggregate inflation. 

Chances are, loneliness is a greater problem for lower income groups than was once the case, because money is now more of a necessity just to partake in a wide range of social activities. For me this is yet another reason to implement time arbitrage as a component/measure of economic activity. Over the years, I've also advocated for time arbitrage in local education, in part as a way for students to regain much needed independence in their youth. It's time to reduce the battles of parental control versus teacher/administrator control over student educational decisions, instead how about letting students assume active roles in these processes? After all - not surprisingly - lack of independence negatively impacts childrens' well being.

David Beckworth highlights a speech by Isabel Schnabel.

"the life expectancy of capital investment has been declining."

Healthcare is one aspect of immigration which could find some bipartisan agreement.

Stefanie Stantcheva explains how zero sum thinking impacts polarization.

There are more single-parent households in the U.S. than anywhere else.

Thomas Hoenig discusses public debt sustainability and the current state of banking.

100 years of macroeconomics: Perhaps critiques are better than models.

Rising real rates have yet to become prominent in mainstream news.

Realistically, it's their last chance to strike in a quickly changing environment for auto manufacturing.

Documenting the recent upsurge of new firm formation in the U.S.

Tyler Cowen notes the need for price transparency in hospitals.

Thursday, August 31, 2023

Wrap Up for August 2023

Daron Acemoglu discusses Power and Progress with Russ Roberts.

California farmers are thinking differently re harnessing flood waters for aquifer management.

What makes level targeting better than growth rate targeting?

Part of the inspiration for Nikola Tesla's lifelong work with electricity, came from his pet cat.

Recommendations for five books on fiscal policy.

Doctors are dealing with moral distress.

What happened to small dollar mortgages?

Which states have the most job openings for workers?

Brink Lindsey argues for economic independence.

The actual Phillips curve relationship was between wage inflation and unemployment, not price inflation and unemployment.

Chances are the Fitch downgrade was overdue.

For central bankers, the low R star view of the world prevailed for too long.

In recent years, a flight of taxable income from large urban areas.

AI is proving effective for antibody treatments.

The real risk identified by Fitch, stems from politics. And Greg Ip explains why he thinks the downgrade shouldn't be ignored.

Once you add money to a barter economy, inflation is possible.

There are ways to make better use of the electrical grid we already have.

Unemployment is associated with inflation but it is not a causal factor.

Why were slaves treated more harshly in richer societies?

China: "Authoritarian impasse" or "structural dead end"?

For healthcare, electronic payments turned out to be a ruse.

How strong is lock-in from low rate mortgages, really?

Chronic absenteeism in U.S. public schools has nearly doubled recently.

Banks no longer expand lending in response to base money increases.

When gross output is taken into consideration, consumption assumes a more rational one third approximate for total economic activity.

What if the recent assessment regarding China's slowdown is wrong?

Bill McBride notes the evidence for a rising natural rate of interest.

It's Martin Wolf's musings in the introduction that make this five books recommendation worthwhile.

Liberty Street Economics looks at possibilities for the natural rate of interest in the near future.

How useful is central bank balance sheet expansion, really?

Some musings from Kevin Erdmann on Jackson Hole.

"Did the U.S. Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt?"

Fixed rate mortgages have created quite a conundrum for U.S. central bankers. Meanwhile, inflation in the U.K. still has its own problems.

Some recent economic trends are unfortunate.

Jeanna Smialek sums up the latest Jackson Hole meeting. Here's the Arslanalp/Eichengreen report on higher public debt.  Axios touches on their paper and Timothy Taylor highlights it alongside other examples.

The stress of coping too much.

A thought provoking discussion on cancer screening.

There are growing labour shortages in what are vital disciplines.

How can home prices still be going up?

There's an upsurge in business formation.

Christine Lagarde at Jackson Hole: "Policymaking in an age of shifts and breaks"

From the Richmond Fed: "The Pandemic's Effects on Children's Education"